Painting The U.N. has a dark and uncertain outlook on the economy. Department This is Economic Social Affairs The current global economic slowdown is a sign of things to come “cuts across both developed and developing countries, with many facing risks of recession in 2023.”
“A broad-based and severe slowdown of the global economy looms large amid high inflation, aggressive monetary tightening, and heightened uncertainties,” U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres This was stated in the foreword to the report of 178 pages.
The According to a report, this year’s 1.9% growth rate is the lowest in recent years. This is down from 3% in 2022. But It projects a modest pick-up of 2.7% to 2024, assuming inflation slows down and economic headwinds subside.
In Its annual report was published earlier in the month. World Bank It lends money to poorer nations for development projects. This has nearly cut its growth forecast in half from its previous projection of 3% to 1.7%.
The International Monetary FundProjected in:, which lends to poor countries. October Global growth will slow to 6% in 2021, 3.2% in 2022, and 2.7% by 2023. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva Last week, at the conference World Economic Forum In Davos However, 2023 will be a difficult years. But we stuck to the projection and said “we don’t expect a global recession.”
Shantanu MukherjeeDirector of the U.N.’s economic analysis and policy section Department This is Economic Social AffairsDuring a press conference that launched the report, he spoke out about the rising income inequality. Between He stated that the average income of the top 10% increased by 1.2% between 2019 and 2021 while the incomes from the bottom 40% decreased by 0.5%.
“The top 10% now earns on average over 42 times what the lowest percentiles” earn, Mukherjee said.
According According to U.N. reports, “growth momentum in the United States has slowed this year.” United States?, European Union adversely affect the rest of the world, including other developed economies The world economy.”
In The United StatesThe U.N. stated that GDP will grow by 0.4% in 2023, compared to 1.8% growth in 2022. And Many European Countries are expected to experience “a mild recession” With the war in Ukraine It enters its second year Feb. 14. High energy costs and inflation, as well as tighter financial conditions, depress household consumption and investment.
The The 27-nation economies European Union According to the U.N., they are expected to increase by 0.2% in 2023 compared with 3.3% in 2022. And In the United KingdomThe EU left the country three years ago. It projected that the GDP will contract by 0.8% by 2023, continuing the recession that started in the second half 2022.
With China’s After the government abandoned its zero COVID policy in late 2017, and eased monetary and fiscal policies, U.N. forecasts that its economy will grow by 4.8% this year. It has experienced a slow growth of 3% since 2022.
“But the reopening of the economy is expected to be bumpy,” The U.N. stated. “Growth will likely remain well below the pre-pandemic rate of 6-6.5%.”
The U.N. report Japan’s Economy is expected to be among the best-performing developed countries this year with GDP expected to grow by 1.5%. This is slightly lower than last years’s 1.6% growth.
Across East AsiaAccording to the U.N., economic recovery is still fragile. However, GDP growth for 2023 is expected to be 4.4%. This is up from 3.2% in last year and higher than in other regions.
In South AsiaThe U.N. predicts that average GDP growth will fall from 5.6% to 4.8% last year due to high energy and food prices. “monetary tightening and fiscal vulnerabilities.”
But Growth in IndiaThe expected rise in a number of other countries is reflected in the. China This year, the United States will remain the most populous country in the world at 5.8%. This is slightly less than the 6.4% expected for 2022. “as higher interest rates and a global slowdown weigh on investments and exports,” The U.N. report stated that.
In Western AsiaThe U.N. stated that oil-producing countries are reaping the benefits of high prices and rising production as well as a revival for tourism. But Economies that don’t produce oil remain weak “given tightening access to international finance and severe fiscal constraints,” It is predicted that the average growth rate in the region will slow from 6.4% to 3.5% by 2022.
The U.N. Africa Hit “by multiple shocks, including weaker demand from key trading partners (especially China and Europe), a sharp increase in energy and food prices, rapidly rising borrowing costs and adverse weather events.”
One It stated that the result is increasing debt-servicing obligations, which has forced a growing number to take on this responsibility. African To seek bilateral and multilateral assistance from governments
The U.N. projects economic growth in Africa This year, the pace of change is expected to slow from an estimated 4.1% to 3.8% in 2022.
In Latin America And the CaribbeanAccording to the U.N., the outlook is positive “remains challenging,” The reasons given are: stagnantly high inflation, labor market prospects, and other issues. It Forecasts indicate that the regional growth rate will be 1.4% by 2023, down from 3.8% growth in 2022.
“The region’s largest economies – Argentina, Brazil and Mexico – are expected to grow at very low rates due to tightening financial conditions, weakening exports, and domestic vulnerabilities,” The U.N. stated.
For The U.N. projected growth at 4.4% in the world’s poorest countries this year. This is roughly the same as last year, but much lower than the UN’s goal of 7% by 2030.